Tag Weather Forecasts

Beyond a shadow of a doubt

Michael 8 Comments

He’s on his way. Just four more days until Groundhog Day 2023! This entire blog could be dedicated to Groundhog Day and the other 51 weeks be just filler material. Actually, it could be dedicated to the Groundhog, Phil, the one, the only, Punxsutawney Phil.

Not a year has gone by that I hadn’t written something of Phil and/or his exploits. At least I don’t think so. You can search “Groundhog Day” if you’re really that interested.  And if you haven’t read the 10 or 12 posts that will pop up there, you should. There’s a wealth of information there. Why, two years ago I even wrote a Groundhog Day carol.

Groundhog Day lovers aren’t known for assiduously adhering to the facts when it comes to our favorite rodent. We are known for our unwavering support for the little furry guy. Phil gets all kinds of non-respect. Meteorologists (the science guys and the TV people) don’t like him (just because he’s more accurate than the science guys and more popular than the TV people). People who don’t like winter (because he predicts a longer winter way more often than an early spring (137-20)), don’t like him. People who want an early spring don’t like him (see previous sentence). Southerners don’t like him (apparently some Georgian poser by the unlikely name of Beauregard gets the confederate vote). But that’s okay because the 42 quadrillion of us who do like him love him, and we love him a lot. How could anyone not love Punxsutawney Phil?  A furry woodland creature not known for building dams, outsmarting waskly hunters, or becoming Daniel Boone’s hat, gets more than his 15 minutes of anthropomorphic fame each February 2 with the power to captivate us mere mortals more than any other animal alive.

So what will this year bring? I’ve said it before, I’m not the prodigious prognosticator that Phil is, but … Considering our hollow trees are a mere 90 miles apart, we are working with the same weather, and this year’s weather in Western Pennsylvania has been anything but predictable. The average temperature has been higher than normal and the average precipitation has been lower. But on the day when it’s been cold, it’s been COLD and on the days it’s been wet and snowy, it’s been WE – well, you get the idea. I say we throw all that together with the fact the Lunar New Year heralding the start of the Spring Festival was so early this year, and Phil can look around all he wants, but he won’t see his shadow and we will thus have an early spring. Yay! Or not.

Is the best way to help, support, and encourage yourself to help, support, and encourage others? We answered that question last week on Uplift! on ROAMcare.org. Read all we had to say.

SAMSUNG

 

Groundhog Day Eve Eve Eve… and it better not be the last one!

Michael 2 Comments
I love Groundhog Day. There. I said it. Again. And will again. And again. It’s a love that never abates. How could anyone not live Groundhog Day?  A furry woodland creature not known for building dams, outsmarting waskly hunters, or becoming Daniel Boone’s hat, gets more than his 15 minutes of anthropomorphic fame each February 2 and the ensuing six weeks.
 
The great and wonderful groundhog with special and semi-secret skills has the power to capture man’s interest and captivate the entire human race or at least those in the know like no other furry friend since the mink in the 1950s. Without the groundhog we would never know if we should pack away our parkas or beef up our boggins. Yes, our resident rodent is truly righteous.
 
But now the prognosticator of prognosticators, the seer of seers, the meteorological marmot is under attack, personal attack, attack by name, as in we want you Punxsutawney Phil, to be no more, to cease and desist the sharing that special knowledge of seasonal weather patterns with the ever waiting world, and retire to a life of obscurity and be replaced by a (my hands are shaking as I type this), by a (deep breath here), by a, a, a robot. A robot! Hmmph!
 
That animal support group that assumes only its ways are the ethical ways to treat animals yet cannot count even one single groundhog, nor any other animal for that matter among their leadership, claim to know what is best for that most famous furball and insist it is “long overdue for Phil to be retired.” Notice “to be retired” not even just ‘retire’ like it would be his choice, but “to be retired,” like some old horse put out to pasture. All true Phil fanatics know this is no ordinary groundhog living his peaceful and quite cushy existence at Gobblers Knob. He has been forecasting for 134 years. That one single, extraordinary example of Marmota monax has been the center of the winter weather world for 134 years. That’s one hundred, thirty seven years! To suggest he is “to be retired” is to encourage and support age discrimination, hardly an ethical stance for any mammal.
 
And what would those manic meddlers suggest we do every Second of February for our prophetic forecast fix? Artificial Intelligence.  Hmmph – again! As stated by a representative of that nebby group, an AI module attach to an animatronic groundhog could “actually predict the weather.” I can see it now, the president of the Inner Circle knocks on former Phil’s front door and says, “Alexa, tell me the weather for the next 6 weeks.” Double Hmmph!!!
 
I say no! This is not the time for Punxsutawney Phil to be retired. Not this year, not any year. We’ve seen what so-called progress does. Bulging landfills, holes in the ozone, pet rocks! When will our march to oblivion stop? Now I say, now! This is the time to embrace Phil (not too tight – he is 134 years old after all) and demand he never retire and will always guide us to our destinies. Or at least to the next six week. 
 

Phil

The robots are not coming! Long live Phil!

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Groundhog Day. Again.

Michael 2 Comments

With Groundhog Day approaching I was certain I could count on welcoming an early spring. Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, home of the master prognosticator Punxsutawney Phil, is just a hair over 90 miles from my front door so the weather isn’t much different. I don’t have Phil’s innate forecasting power but I could do a reasonable imitation of him by crawling out of my home and looking for a shadow and we would be working under the same sun. Well, naturally it would be the same sun but you know what I mean.

Anyway … I was certain I could count on Phil not casting a shadow because I am certain he is smart enough to stay inside in weather like this. For the past two days I woke up to -5° temperatures. Not fit weather for man (that would be me) or beast (Phil, of course). Then this morning I heard on the morning weather guess (they like to call it a “forecast” but we know better) this Saturday we will be waking to temperatures in the 30s. That’s above freezing! In fact, if you are to believe the amateur prognosticators, Sunday temperatures might be in the 50s, Monday close to 60, then the back the teens and 20s by Tuesday. This is a week after days that never got out of single digits followed by a couple 60° afternoons then this latest foray into sub-zero land.

freezerI think everybody in the world (except San Diego) can honestly say “if you don’t like the weather just wait a day, it will change!” but this is ridiculous. It’s also not uncommon. Without trying to annoy the climate change crowd or those who feel climate change is a socialist plot, the world is not made for stable weather patterns. It’s a not quite spherical orb spinning at a not quite constant speed on a tilted axis while revolving around a not consistent heat source on a not quite regular ovoid orbit. If you don’t believe me I give you from prehistory the Sahara Forest, from modem tourism the Great Lakes, and from calendar makers’ nightmares throughout time leap year.

But forget the long range consequences of our planet hurtling through space with the surefootedness of a vertiginous ballroom dancer. We feel earth’s uncertainty every day. Every single day sunrise and sunset happen at a different time. And not even consistently. Every. Single. Day. Seasons “officially” change on a different day every year. We can’t even figure out how to divide a year into even proportions. We say there are 12 months in a year but they are of three different lengths. We say there are 52 weeks in a year but then ever year starts on a different day of the week. We say there are 365 days in a year yet there’s that leap year thing going on.

So in the midst of all this terrestrial and celestial turmoil we put our trust in a furry woodland creature to tell us if we should plant the corn early this year. Eh, he has a better track record than the guys getting paid to do it so why not?  But if those hotshot weather forecasters are wrong about Saturday morning and we wake up to -5° again and Phil wants to stay in, let him take the day off. Spring will get here even without him. Eventually. We’ll just not be sure exactly when but then why should this year be any different? It’s already different enough anyway.

 

 

Leafed by the Side of the Road

Michael 2 Comments

Yesterday, for the fourth time this month I took the little car out of the garage, dropped the top, donned a pair of polarizing sunglasses (one lens Democrat, the other Republican), grabbed the real camera, and set out in search of autumnal magic, fall leaves. And for the fourth time I was disappointed.

The first time, which happened to be the 1st, I wasn’t surprised that not many trees had shifted from their summery green foliage. On the second Sunday I saw some yellowing and was given hope that the following week would be more colorful. Last week’s attempt fell in the middle of what the TV weather forecasters predicted to be the peak for color. The only red I saw was the car’s paint job. (In fairness I should have expected no colored leaves since I was going on a weather person’s prediction. After all, these were the same people who brought us “partly cloudy.”)

But yesterday’s disappointment hit a little on the hard side. There’s only one Sunday left to October. If the foliage is still as dull then as it had been I fear I may not see another leaf as pretty as on a fall tree, given that my medical history and its corresponding future are as uncertain as weather forecasting. (My long range plan is to live to at least 100. I tell my daughter that every chance I get so she won’t get to thinking that she’ll be able to live into her golden years off her inheritance. Of course only I know it’s really because if I were to drop dead tomorrow she’d only be able to live comfortably until next Thursday, so my only chance of not disappointing her in that regard is to grow so old that she herself will be old enough that she forgets that she has anything coming to her.)

It’s been an exceptionally warm fall so far this year. If you are to believe the Farmer’s Almanac (and why shouldn’t you?) it will stay above average in temperature until the week before Thanksgiving, much too late for fall foliage festivities. I don’t know if it’s the extended warm weather causing the poor color spectacle. Those pesky weather people who two weeks ago said it wouldn’t are now saying it is. But then in the past, they have said disappointing color was because it got too cold too soon. Other years it was too dry. During still others, too much rain was the cause for a dull fall.

Leaves100909

Last good color I shot, October 2009

To be perfectly honest, I haven’t seen a really vibrant fall for some years now. I suppose the easy thing to blame it on would be climate change. That seems to be a good reason for just about anything we aren’t happy with climatically speaking. Which makes perfect sense since in the truest sense of it, any change in the air can be defined as climate change. Unfortunately we actually believe we can do something about it.

The hardest thing for us to accept is recognizing that yes, people do things that aren’t good for the environment but that the environment is going to change anyway. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t be respectful of the environment and do what is good and healthy for it and for us. It is to say though that eventually, the world’s history is going to catch up with it and there are going to be changes that we aren’t responsible for and that we can’t do anything about.

As hard as it is for us and our egos to accept, we aren’t in charge here. The world came before us and had its routine well established before we propelled our first ozones into the ozone. It’s been hot, it’s been cold, it was covered in ice and covered in water. We are here at its invitation and are welcomed to ride the rides while we are here but that’s as far as it is willing to go.

This year’s colors might not be to my liking and that’s going to have to be ok. Colorful or not, the leaves will drop, spring will be back and new ones will bud on the trees. Next fall I’ll again look forward to a day when I can aim my camera at the beauty of the fall foliage.

Until then, like yesterday, I’ll just enjoy the ride.

 

Five Minutes Wait

Michael Leave a comment

If you don’t like the weather just wait five minutes. It’ll change. How many times have you heard that, said that, or wished that? Unless you maybe live on St. Lucia not during hurricane season. Around here those five minute changes are actually getting fairly commonplace. It’s sort of scary sometimes. Let me take you through 48 hours of last weekend.

Friday morning followed a couple warmish days for February north of the 40th parallel. With temperatures expected to be around 40 degrees at midday we had just completed a week of daytime highs in the 50s and 60s. At wakeup time it was about 54 degrees. We should have expected it to be closer to 24 degrees but a warm week happens just as often as the cold week.

It shouldn’t have been unexpected. The forecasters actually predicted warmer weather. Even though over half of the month to date had been at or below average for February, the half that was higher was high enough to predict that this month would be the warmest February on record. Days and weeks and months of weather being any but what’s expected are expected around here. A warmest February on record didn’t get the global warming proponents any more excited than the coldest February on record in 2015 got the global warming opponents excited. We’ve come to learn to expect the unexpected. (Trite, but descriptive.)

Anyway, Friday I woke up to 54 degree weather and a morning forecast of it getting warmer. Indeed, by 1:00 it had breezed past (with calm winds) the previous date record of 70 degrees on its way to a high a few hours later of 76 degrees under clear, sunny skies. I got to see none of this being locked away against my will at the dialysis clinic. When I emerged from their binds a bit after 4:00 in the afternoon my car thermometer confirmed I was living in a parallel city that should have been occupying the Southern Hemisphere. As pleasant as it was I could honestly say I didn’t like it and wished it would change.

You see, I wanted it to change because it is still winter. As much as I have been less tolerant of colder days as I have entered my older days I still want seasons. If I didn’t enjoy a few weeks every year of rain and new growth flowers in the spring and falling leaves and brisk mornings in the fall and even cold and snow in the winter, I’d move to St. Lucia. I also wanted it to change because there a hockey game was scheduled to be played outside Saturday evening. Who wants to see outdoor hockey in mid70 degree weather. I don’t even like to go to baseball games when it’s that hot. Not to worry. God is a hockey fan and He’ll take care of it I told myself. It took a few more than five minutes.

Saturday at wake up it was the same 54 degrees that greeted me Friday morning and at 1:00 in the afternoon the weather service was still recording temperatures in the 50s. But then (probably because I was outside rather than chained to a medieval medical machine yet dressed like I was outside the day before) the temperature took a dramatic plunge. An hour later it was ten degrees colder, another hour another ten degrees and by 4:00 as I was finally home and changed into more appropriate clothing for February weather, February weather returned with a gusto (and with wind gusts approaching 40mph).

At 6:00 when the gates opened for the game the temperature had dropped to 36 degrees and snow flurries were flitting in the glow of the high intensity lighting. At face-off the recorded temp was exactly 32 degrees. And all was right with the world.

Sunday morning I woke up to the temperature at 26 degrees, a drop of 50 degrees in 40 hours. Maybe a little chilly for some but according to the weather people exactly average for the date.

Exactly average. How unimpressive is that? But it’s ok. If you don’t like it, just wait five minutes.

That’s what I think. Really. How ‘bout you?

Cloudy With a Good Chance

Michael 1 Comment

It’s just a couple days to Christmas and that means children and romantics are asking will there be a White Christmas this year. Today’s weather people can pretty much tell you within one or two percentage points if it will or if it won’t wherever you are. It wasn’t always that way.

I remember many years ago there weren’t weather forecasts on the evening news. There were weather reports. TIROS I became the first weather satellite to watch over the Earth’s climate conditions when it was launched in 1960. Before that the weather segment was what happened, not what to expect. Probably the only weather men willing to take a risk and “predict” tomorrow’s weather were those in San Diego, or perhaps Phoenix, where you could say it’s going to be warm and sunny and get it right almost every day. Where I grew up the weathermen spoke of today’s weather in the East being pretty much what yesterday’s weather was in the MidWest. And if one wasn’t sure, it never hurt to predict “partly cloudy.”

One December back then we were closing in on Christmas Day and it looked like the only White Christmas we were going to see was the movie of the week special presentation. It was all but confirmed when the reigning weather champ said out loud, on TV, for all the world (or at least the local metro area), the next few days before the the holiday would be at best – “partly cloudy.”

I believe that was two days before Christmas and we kids sighed our sighs that even if we got new sleds (which we never did, now that I think about it), we’d not be racing downhill on them. So off to bed we went. And we woke up the following morning to about 6 inches of fresh fallen snow! Woohoo!! (Or Yippee!! as we would have said back then.)

Later that day on the local evening newscast the regular anchorman introduced a fill-in weatherman for the evening weather report. “And tonight we have John Smith filling in at the weather desk. Joe couldn’t make it in today. He’s still at home shoveling the partly cloudy off his driveway.”

So for all of you wishing for a White Christmas this weekend, I wish for you as much partly cloudy as your driveways can hold. Yippee!! in advance.

That’s what I think. Really. How ’bout you.

Milk and Bread and Toilet Paper – Oh My

Michael Leave a comment

A week ago I was writing about a restaurant with a sign up that said “Patio Open.” This week, that patio is covered with snow. There are times I truly hate February. But I have my milk, bread, and toilet paper so I know I’m set for the rest of the month.

I’m sure there are super-markets across the country, no, across the world that are overrun with mad shoppers a flake short of looters hoarding all the milk, bread, and toilet paper at the first hint of a storm. But here we can actually walk that particular cat back to a real crisis – sort of.

It was in 1950, the day after Thanksgiving. The forecast was dire, 12 inches of snow over the next 24 hours. The weathermen (remember, 1950, no weatherwomen then) were wrong. Over three feet fell over those 24 hours. Over the next few days the locals dealt with it. The snow came, emergency services served, and people existed on their Thanksgiving leftovers.

The weekend came and went and so did the leftovers. Probably because of those leftovers, the city grocers had fairly well stocked shelves come Monday. So well stocked they were that one of the local papers headlined how well things were going with “City’s Food Supply Is in Good Shape.” The story was slugged “There Is Plenty for Everybody…” That was a relief, but rather short-lived. The article’s second sentence began, “Milk was the one shortage that has hit all sections…”  The sentences that followed noted specific abundances, praised workers who showed up, and in general commented positively on how there is still plenty of food for everybody. Except for that milk thing. Oh, and bread which had been “doled out in some stores.” Remember, 1950. World War II rationing wasn’t that long ago. “Doled out” did not conjure up images of “plenty for everybody.”

Then to make matters worse the story continued that heads of families should buy “only what you need on a day-to-day schedule in order to have enough of everything to go around.” That doesn’t sound like “plenty for everybody” at all. No sir, not at all.  No milk, no bread and here are families who just spent a weekend of every meal that included leftover turkey gravy. And those were some big families (remember, 1950, baby boomers). If they needed enough of anything to go around it was going to be toilet paper. And it was going to be soon!

Ever since then, no matter what the forecast, if there was any snow in it then as God as our witness we will NEVER run out of milk, bread, or toilet paper! And that’s why today when I stopped in the bakery for a loaf of bread all that was left were a few mini-Italians and a couple donuts. The little cooler had no milk and they don’t even sell toilet paper. And yes, yesterday’s forecast called for 1 to 3 inches by tomorrow.

Fortunately I really don’t drink much milk. I myself am a mini-Italian so I was quite satisfied with the available bread. Since the inception of places like Sam’s and Cosco I can open my own toilet paper franchise.

The donuts? They were a plus. I figure you can never have too much of anything with sprinkles, and if I didn’t buy them somebody else would.

I can hardly wait for the next snowfall.

That’s what I think. Really. How ‘bout you?

 

 

True Lies

Michael Leave a comment

It’s been twenty years since Arnold Schwarzenegger kept the fact that he was a spy from his movie wife Jaime Lee Curtis in True Lies. She really wasn’t lied to as much as just not told the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Not unlike a lot of stuff that’s going on now.

Even though it’s Spring and we are still getting legitimate bad weather, we do find ourselves with clear skies and no snow every couple of days a week. The weather forecasters, now used to a season’s worth of viewers hanging on to their every isobar must crave the days when something on their radar screens actually shows potential “Severe Weather.”   No problem. If the local forecast has no precipitation nearby, they just bring up some neighboring radar. And, voila, there we have the greens, and the blues, and the whites, and the greys we are used to seeing and they can say with all honesty, “This storm could dump another couple of inches before it’s all over.” Just because it’s 200 miles away doesn’t make it untrue.

Recently a sales brochure showed up in the mail. We think it was a sales brochure. It had glossy pages, colorful pictures, and big fonts declaring “$10 off!” But it never said $10 off what. Of a regular low, low price? Off an already discounted price? Off the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (AKA modern fiction)? There was no indication of what the starting or final price was or is. Ten dollars off, true. Cost to you, who knows.

Fine print is annoying in print ads usually requiring a good strong magnifying glass. Fine print on a television ad is basically useless. It’s at the bottom of the screen, still requiring a magnifying glass even with a 50 inch picture. And just as you are ready to focus in, it disappears. But now we have to deal with fine print on radio ads! If after the ad you hear a breathless individual who manages to speak at an annoying 720 words a minutes all in a near whisper, assume that everything you just heard clearly in the body of the ad has now been modified, restricted, or limited. The ad was absolutely true. You can indeed get cell phone service for 87 cents a month. However, the additional access, roaming, internet, texting, calling, receiving, and bill paying fees add up to $220 for the life of the contract unless the phone company decides to raise any or all of them.

These are just a few examples of today’s true lies. You can come up with many more if you think about it for thirty seconds or so. True? Absolutely. Misleading? Even more so. And it doesn’t take a spy to figure out what’s wrong with those pictures.

Now, that’s what we think. Really. How ‘bout you?