Tag Odds

Too odds to be true

Michael 3 Comments

I had intended today’s post to be of a single thought unlike the previous few that meandered through my consciousness. And then fate intervened. Fate does that you know. One thing happened and one thing will that combine might actually make me question my theory of all things are 50/50. If you’re unfamiliar with that, go read it here. We’ll wait. 

These is uniquely an American post although other readers surely will get something out of it. They may learn a lesson or two or they may get a good laugh at thee crazy ‘mericans. 

I am still a firm believer that life is an even odds proposition. Everything either will or won’t, is or isn’t, does or doesn’t. I’ve said that so often I could have made a career out of it. I’ve actually gotten close to doing that, having written various blog posts and resented either in meetings or in podcasts, my theory of everything is 50/50.  

And then the PowerBall happened.  As of Sunday afternoon, the jackpot reached $1.9 billion. Lottery watchers anticipate it will top $2 billion by tonight’s drawing. People are quite literally betting the rent that a 1 in 292,200,000 long shot will come in for them. It’s making my plan to buy a single ticket because it’s odds of winning are just as good as it’s odds of loser are. (For the record, I bought 5 chances.) 

It is easy to be carried away by the thought of winning $2 billion. That’s a number I cannot grasp. Of course, that’s the price if you take the annuity option paid out over 30 years. If you want cash, it would pay out about $600,000 before taxes, maybe a little over $380,000 after state and federal taxes. Now we’re down into territory I can fathom. Still, that’s a lot of money. I said this was an American thing. Not completely. I’m sure there are Canadians, Mexicans, Etceterians willing to cross borders for a chance at $2 billion, US.  But it’s not completely All- American. You can buy a PowerBall ticket in 45 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. That leaves 5 states and a few territories out of the picture. Let’s stick with the states. Hide that do not participate are Alabama, Alaska, Nevada and Utah and presumably residents of those states can drive across the closest state line and plunk down however many $2 offerings they desire, although it only takes one. Oh wait, you say we’re still missing a state. Hmm yes. The fifth state where the PowerBall is only a game to be played in one’s mind is our fiftieth state, Hawaii, and not even just a quick drive across the state line will be enough to get you a chance to lose two bucks.  

Now that second thing going on that defies odds is tomorrow’s elections. It’s Election Day in the US and some of the nastiest, meanest, and dirtiest, politically races should come to an end by the close of polls on Tuesday. Unfortunately, reports are that candidates are already preparing legal challenges to voters, votes, and election certifications, some saying they will not accept the decision of the voters if they are not declared the winner. I’m not kidding about that. One has gone so far as to say when he is governor of his state he can and will decertify any or all voting machines at his discretion, basically insuring his stay as governor as king as he gets over that first hurdle and makes it past the voters this week. It looks like tomorrow will be just the beginning of politician season.

Truly only in American politics can my theory of everything is 50/50, either it is or it isn’t, either it did or it didn’t, be invalid. To listen to those yahoos running, everything either is or else. Now those odds are truly too odd to be true. 

——————

Have you thought how much you could benefit by doing for others with no thought of a reward. It is the beginnings of selflessness and the foundation of character. We do these not because we want something. We do them because we don’t. Read how we find our selflessness at ROAMcare.org

If Not For Bad Luck

Michael Leave a comment

A recent Reuters news article reported that 65% of cancers can be attributed to physiological bad luck.  Some 22 of 31 identified cancer types were traced to unexplained, random cell mutations.  These cancers included leukemia, pancreatic cancer, and ovarian and testicular cancer.  The other nine types which included lung, skin, and colorectal cancers, could be attributed to environmental or hereditary changes.  One of the researchers whose work was examined for the article was quoted saying the real reason that people get cancer in many cases, “is that person was unlucky. It’s losing the lottery.”

Well, that’s a relief.  I thought I had done something wrong to earn my cancer.  Fortunately now I know that it was just plain old bad luck.  It was probably bad luck that I had a surgical wound open up after the operation to remove that fluke.  That was compounded by more bad luck when the infection popped up.  And let’s not forget the bad luck of the revisions to the original surgery that had to be performed, all of that keeping me in the hospital some six months out of the past eighteen.

And it was during those same eighteen months that the company I was contracted to sold off the facility I was assigned to dropping me into the ranks of the unemployed as well as those of the unlucky.  The unlucky circumstances thus continued when all of the treatments and therapies though quite effective in keeping me alive couldn’t keep me with enough stamina to work a full business day so I continue to be unemployed while searching for an employer compassionate enough to understand that someone who has been extremely effective can still be so while working only half days at a time.

Of course there was the additional unluckiness of not being a child, a single mom, a returning veteran, a celebrity, a politician, or a television or movie character that may or may not be based on an actual person.  Nobody was submitting my name to any foundation to cover the expenses of a trip to Pisa or to Punxsutawney while arranging for free housekeeping, a new suit, and an interview on the late show thus garnering enough new found publicity that the previous paragraph’s ill fortune was quite handsomely negated.

So now I spend most days filling out insurance forms and sweepstakes entries with about the same odds of success, job applications with even longer odds, or call an old colleague to see if he or she has any spare hours or opportunities with the longest odds of them all.  On the bright side, I have been catching up with my reading and writing.  Seriously, on the bright side…come on, seriously a bright side?

Imagine playing the lottery with a 65% chance of hitting.  Oh wait, the researcher said that was like losing the lottery.  I manage to do that every week, twice a week.  That is ok.  If I hit the lottery I’d probably just squander the winnings on things like food and mortgage payments.  What a relief that choice doesn’t have to be made!  And here I thought I was just plain old unlucky.

Sorry, not every post is going to be up-beat.  Just real.

Now, that’s what I think. Really. How ‘bout you?

 

Odds On Favorites

Michael 3 Comments

The PowerBall and MegaMillions jackpots have been up again.  The Super Bowl was just a little while ago and word has it that in Las Vegas you really could bet that the first score would be a safety.  Around here everybody is betting on whether the weather will ever rise above freezing again.  What do these things have in common?  They all have odds of winning, or in the case of the last one, not freezing.

Once upon a time we took statistics to determine odds and what’s significant and what isn’t.  In fact, He of We recalls an assignment that required the fledgling statistician to determine the odds of him or her passing the course.  That was cruel but the odds weren’t all that bad.

When the PowerBall people reconfigured the number of numbers available to draw, the odds of winning went from something like one in a gazillion to one in infinity.  Yet people still win.  That got us to thinking.  If you stop to think about what are the odds of something happening the odds are pretty good that you will end up with a headache.  Don’t even think of gambling.  Just think of life.  What are the odds you’ll get to work on time every day next week?  What are the odds that you won’t slip on an icy sidewalk?  What are the odds that you’re next paycheck will be in the bank before you next have to fill up your car’s gas tank?  Everything has a chance that it will or will not happen.  Not that it might or might not.  It either will or it will not.

That led us to a most profound revelation.  The odds of anything happening are 50/50.  Or even of not happening.  Everything in life boils down to a 1 in 2 chance.  Either it will or it won’t.  It doesn’t matter if some world class statistician determined the odds that the first play from scrimmage in the Super Bowl would result in a safety were 6,000 to 1 or that the odds that Finland will win the women’s hockey gold medal in the Olympics are 16 to 1. There’s a headache starting to happen.  There are only eight teams in the women’s tournament so shouldn’t the greatest odds be 8 to 1?  It doesn’t matter.  The real odds are 50/50.  Either they will win or they will lose.

So now that we’ve shared our profound revelation with you, you can bet with confidence on next year’s Super Bowl, this year’s Olympics, or tomorrow’s weather.  Everybody deserves the good odds and you can’t get much better than 50/50.  Actually even that can be reduced to some pretty good odds.  Either you will or you won’t.

Now, that’s what we think. Really. How ‘bout you?