Tag Majority

Only in America

Michael 3 Comments
This has been the week for Only in America. It’s funny. When I was growing up bright eyed during the days of The Donna Reed Show and Leave It to Beaver, Only in America meant the good things the country provided its citizens. Today, Only in America reflects the bizarre that no other country would expose to its citizens. 
 
The most watched show in the last week might have been the impeachment proceedings. And make no mistake, it was a show. Only in America is news an entertainment venture complete with spiffy graphics and market tested titles. At some news outlets this weekend’s lead graphic proclaimed “Senate Votes to Acquit 57-43.” Actually not true and misleading. Truer were the ones “Senate Acquits Trump 57-43” but still misleading. Truer and not misleading were those who published simply “Senate Acquits” or the least misleading, “Senate Fails to Convict.” Let me explain.
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Senate TV via AP

 
The headlines touting acquittal by a vote of 57-43 imply more Senators voted to acquit that convict and that more of them felt the charges were unsubstantiated.  In fact there was no vote to acquit. The vote was not taken to determine innocence but to establish guilt so the vote was to convict. Fifty-three Senators voted to convict, 43 senators to acquit and even though more of those Senators voted to convict the former President, it was not enough.  Only in America can less people vote for something and win.
 
This can explain the whole Trumpian movement. In 2016, Trump garnered fewer votes in the Presidential election yet was declared a winner. That may have led to the expectation that whatever is his desire is the reality, regardless of the actual reality. Thus America entered the Alternate Facts Era. Only in America can the be multiple facts for a given piece of reality. And it started when it didn’t rain on the 2016 inauguration – even if all those photos and videos show watery precipitation falling from the sky. Let’s review.
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After the Trump inauguration the White House press secretary declared the “largest crowd to ever witness an inauguration  – period” saw the new President sworn in. He even stated the Washington DC area mass transit system carried over 420,000 people that day as part of his proof that the inauguration was the biggest of its kind. When reporters questioned actual crowd size from aerial photos and established that the transit system had in fact carried only 197,000 riders, another top White House figure explained this difference by stating, “Our press secretary gave alternate facts to that [crowd size]” and so now whatever was wished to have happened will have happened and be proven if not with facts then with Alternate Facts. 
 
Although this concept of not telling the complete truth (which many rational people call lying) is not a new idea, for four years Alternate Facts ruled and millions of people chose the alternate version to the factual version. Everything was unfair game: medical pronouncements from windmills causing cancer to the use of mask and social distancing don’t do much to prevent the spread of air borne viruses; environmental related charges from California wildfires spread because the state diverts water from rivers to the Pacific Ocean to it takes 10 to 15 flushes to adequately clear a low-flow toilet; political charges from “Article II [of the Constitution] allows me to do whatever I want” to the election was rigged.
 
Alternate Facts are embraced by so many because they are easier to understand than real facts. Real facts often require a knowledge of a particular subject or at least a requirement read a full news article or opinion piece, anything beyond a retweeted Twitter post on a topic. Alternate facts, because they have no basis in actual fact require no research because there is nothing to research. Yes Only in America have so many received degrees in medicine law, political science, engineering, or economics from Google University.
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Alternate Facts often can boiled down to a simple slogan or phrase, something easy to remember. Again, not a new idea. Marketers have used the sloganeering since marketing began. For example, you may not know anything about American sports but you probably recognize the sobriquet Hammering Hank and know Hank Aaron hit a lot of home runs, or that the Steel Curtain had something to do with football defense. They are a playful nicknames that glean from the truth. Likewise advertisers have made household names out of obscure brands. “When you’re number two you have to try harder” was coined when Avis was actually a distant #3 in car rentals but by the time they were coerced into changing their slogan to a simpler “We Try Harder” they were closing in in the number one spot. Unfortunately some quick to remember tags are far from truthful like sticking the word “herbal” as part of the trademarked name of a skin product or vitamin when in fact there is no herbal ingredient. Or Stop the Steal when there was nothing stolen. Nicknames not at all playful, Crooked Hillary, Cryin’ Chuck, or Mike Pounce for example, to people other than to the bullyesque may live longer than Aaron’s hold on the home run record. Only in America.
 
Yep, Only in America can the majority vote for something and lose, can hard news be reduced to sound bites, and can political opponents, regardless of party be reduced to nasty nicknames, and can facts be substituted at will, yet some people see nothing wrong with that picture.  
 
And people say Leave It to Beaver was an unrealistic presentation of life. 
 
Beaver Comic 2
 

Count Me In

Michael 7 Comments
I’ll start out politely. If you still have a campaign sign up for any candidate for any office in your front yard stop being a tool and go that that thing down. Yes, Virginia, the election is over. And be responsible, those signs are recyclable you know.
 
Okay, now let’s all sit down and have our physicis, err, civics lessons. The election is over. The counting may not be and guess what, it almost never ever is by now in any year. That’s because there are always recanvases and audits, sometimes recounts, and election boards have to review all of this before any count can be certified. The chances of mis-counts happening are pretty slim. Occasionally they do and sometimes between projection, final count, and certified count 1, or 2 votes might swing. Pretty important stuff for the dogcatcher at Dog Patch, voter population 4. Not so important when we are talking about 150 million voters. Close votes sometimes trigger automatic recounts, or often induce apparent losers to petition for a recount. The information clearinghouse Ballotpedia reviewed 4,687 statewide general elections and noted than recounts were ordered 27 times. Of those 3 resulted in a change in the apparent winner and in those three cases the initial margin of apparent victory was 161 votes or less.
 
Here’s a fact of life. Incumbents don’t always win. Even Presidential incumbents. In the United States thirteen times before this year the incumbent President failed to win reelection beginning with America’s very second President. In 1912 William Howard Taft finished third in a 3 way race in his reelection! This is not an American phenomenon. Across the globe incumbent Presidents have lost in reelection attempts outside the U. S. over 60 times since Taft’s third place finish.
 
imagesIf the votes of the 2020 election stand as they are currentry counted, with Joe Biden pulling in more than 51% of the popular vote cast, this is not a particularly close race. That’s not particularly uncommon. Before this year popular vote winner failed to receive more 50% of the votes cast eighteen times although not all if then were close. The most recent close race was the 2000 Bush vs Gore election with George W. Bush defeating Al Gore in the electoral college by 1 vote but losing the popular vote to Gore by 500,000 out of approximately 102 million votes cast (48.4% to 47.9%). In 1960 with Kennedy vs Nixon although John Kennedy had a comfortable majority of 84 electoral votes, Richard Nixon won electors in 26 states to 22 for Kennedy (Harry F. Byrds won 2 states) and the popular vote difference between Kennedy and Nixon was 113,000 out of about 69 million votes cast (49.72% 49.55%). In 1876 Hayes ve Tilden the popular vote went to Samuel Tilden  although Rutherford B. Hayes won in the electoral college by one vote. In 1824 in a 4 way race John Quincy Adams lost the popular vote to Andrew Jackson by less than 45,000 votes, neither candidate receive a majority of electoral votes and the President was determine by a vote in the House of Representatives which was won by Adams by a single vote. (The popular vote results were 41.4% Jackson, 30.9% Adams, 25.2% combined Crawford and Clay although not all states held general elections for President.) 
 
Not all close popular vote victories resulted in electoral college nail biters and some large electoral college wins were determined by quite small popular vote margins. Some electoral college votes cannot even by compared to popular vote because until 1828 not all states held elections for president. Article II, Section 1 of the U.S.Constitution specified the states would elect the president but bow the states determined for whom each would cast their vote was left to the states themselves. Five times electoral college victories were scored by popular vote losers, most recently in 2016 when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 77 electors yet receiving 2.75 million less popular votes. Others include George W. Bush and John Quincy Adams already mentioned. In 1888 Benjamin Harrison defeated incumbent Grover Cleveland by 2 electors while losing the popular vote by 9,500 votes. Twelve years earlier Rutherford B. Hayes took the electoral college by a margin of 65 votes while losing the popular vote to Samuel Tilden by 110,000 votes cast. Did anybody ever win all available electoral votes? Actually yes, twice. George Washington and George Washington. 
 
What does all this tell us? A couple things. We can sit around all day, all week, all year crunching numbers looking for who won what when and by how much and the answer still comes out the same. The election is over. Let’s move on. And there hasn’t been a George Washington since George Washington. 
 
Oh, and go clean up those yard signs.